Always an agenda

I was reading the latest Greenhouse news report (earth hotter than it's been 400 years), and was all prepared to blog about that.  Then, I discovered that my WordPress was down.  So, I read around a bit more and discovered that The Anchoress has already said what I planned to say.  So, here's the Anchoress on that subject:

Which begs the question…if we weren’t driving cars and flying planes and otherwise polluting the earth…why was the earth so freaking hot 400 years ago?

The stellar ladies at the Independent Women's Forum add their bit to this discussion:

But here are the actual findings by the scientists of the National Research Council:

"Their 155-page report said average global surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere rose about 1 degree F during the 20th century."

Oh.

Kind of gives new meaning to the phrase "greenhouse gas."

What's interesting is that this report makes it appear, not just that the reporter was bringing his biases to the story, but that the scientists were too.  How else to account for scientists making statements like this:

The National Academy of Sciences, after reconstructing global average surface temperatures for the past two millennia, said Thursday the data are "additional supporting evidence … that human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming."

Going back to the Anchoress' point, this sentence makes little sense given that temperatures have been as hot on planet earth before this time, despite the absence of any significant Greenhouse Gas emissions. And lest you doubt the Anchoress' logical conclusion, reading past articles inflammatory headline and first few paragraphs gets you to this little gem:

Combining that information gave the panel "a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years," the panel wrote. It said the "recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years and potentially the last several millennia," though it was relatively warm around the year 1000 followed by a "Little Ice Age" from about 1500 to 1850.

We're getting used to hysterical, misleading and, sometimes, out-and-out dishonest reporting from the MSM.  The problem is that, lately, scientists seem to lead more and more with an agenda as well.  I pointed this out the other day in connection with an article about "scientists" who set up a computer game to show that optimistic military leaders tend to attack for their own benefit when they have the opportunity.  The report made it clear that the impetus for the study was the "scientist's" personal belief that the Iraq war is a "debacle."  Unsurprisingly, they quickly reached the "scientific" conclusion that unreasonably optimistic leaders get their followers into military debacles.  Armed with this "fact", it was a short step for these "scientists" to conclude that Bush's irrational behavior is leading us into a morass. 

Reading the article carefully was instructive, because it never provided evidence that the optimistic subjects whom the "scientists" liked to Bush were more likely to lose through there attack strategy.  (I'll admit that this evidence may have existed in the underlying report; it just never showed up in the shrill news article.)  I'll add a dose of common sense here.  Of course optimistic people are more likely to attack.  It would be a fool of a leader who, believing himself outmanned and outgunned and without any capacity to win, nevertheless started a battle.  You need to believe you have an advantage before you press it. 

It's also likely that people playing with monopoly money (the study did, after all, involve a computer game) are going to take more risks than real people in the real world.  I know that, when it comes to my own money, I'm the most risk averse person in the world.  When I play computer blackjack, though, I'll cheerfully risk millions of dollars in the hopes of winning.

My point is that, as Arthur Conan Doyle and Dorothy Sayers have both noted, it's a dreadful mistake to theorize ahead of your data.  It taints the data irreparably.  Enough of this, and the whole scientific community is thrown into disrepute.  

So, back to the global warming issue:  I don't question that the earth's temperature has changed in the last decades and centuries.  It is entirely possible that we're responsible for more recent aspects of that change.  However, it's also possible that we're not — because this has happened before.  I reserve judgment.  The problem is that I don't feel that there is credible information out there to which I can look to educate myself on this issue.  This is so because, lately, science seems so much less about data and conclusions, and so much more about agendas, agendas, agendas.

19 Responses

  1. The myth that scientists and the military are perfect bastions of virtue etc is not accurate.

    I don’t why these myths exists, but they do. Scientists have biases, academics have biases, the military has biases. Everyone is human and can potentially be mistaken.

    I’m leaning on the side that says the Earth would have gone into an ice age already hadi t not been for humanity warming the atmosphere.

  2. SPeaking about agendas, VDH has a good piece of work on individualism vs society, here

    http://victorhanson.com/articles/thornton062206.html

    The rebels in the 60s weren’t individuals, none of them were old enough to have sprung full grown from the brows of the greatest generation. What they wanted was a new social group, and they were just as fanatically loyal to their group conformity as they were critical about the group comfority of people not in their circles.

    Thus their cause, the cause of the Left and progressives, became not based upon individualism but the power of the state, of government, and of social conformity.

  3. BW, HOW DARE YOU! Stop asking questions! This problem is all a conspiracy by Big Oil, factory barons, and Detroit Auto to enslave us all. Just accept that the dolphins, whales, and birds are being tortured by us and STOP BEING A TROUBLEMAKER!

    Oh, sorry, about that….I was practicing my militant enviro method of debate. I apologize…..

  4. The article linked has been updated to, “Earth, hotter than its been in 2000 years”.

    In the article there is a comment about the use of proxies to determine the temps during this 2000 year period, “to look at the “proxy” evidence before then, such as tree rings, corals, marine and lake sediments, ice cores, boreholes and glaciers.”

    It makes me wonder where the proxies were from and why they were chosen.

    The historical evidence tells us that the British monastaries had a wine industry for around 200 years during the Medieval Warm Period, about 1000 years back, that involved grapes that presently grow only in warm areas like California and the Mediteranian. The Norsemen were doing their long-range explorations during this period because of the “good weather”… they were not worried about being locked out of their home ports by winter ice. The coast of Greenland was actually green, and had been long enough for trees to grow which they used to build their settlements; they didn’t have the shipping capacity to bring all that lumber with them from the Nordic regions. They left when the area started getting too cold for their crops to thrive.

    When we reach the point where Norway no longer needs ice breakers to clear their ports in winter, we will have reached the point of warming we had during the Medieval Warm Period. Until we get there, I’m not going to worry about it.

  5. Brace yourselves … Ready? … Are you sure? … Here goes: Global-change isn’t a “gotcha” issue. You happen to be utterly ignorant of global-change science and thus your arguments reflect that.

    What you should do is shut up and listen, OK?

  6. Pastor Ray, global climate change isn’t a “gotcha” issue, it is a “let’s scare the hell out of the capitalists” issue.

    Are you ready for this? Scientists agree that the temperatures and levels of CO2 are rising concurrently.

    But that is only half of the story. The scientist agree that the rise of the temps and CO2 are concurrent; they do NOT agree on the cause. Approximately half of them believe that solar warming (being tracked by NASA, if you would like a link!) is causing a rise in the CO2 due to more biological activity in the oceans.

    So the notion that people are causing global warming is most definitely NOT settled.

  7. Pastor Ray,

    You don’t come to someone’s house and insult them. If you have something substantive to say, please feel free to do that. I like to have my blog as a forum for non-insulting discourse. If you’re going to attack me directly, you will not be welcome here. It is, after all, my blog and I get to make the rules.

  8. If a blog author tells me to shut up and listen when I comment on their blog, I just go read and comment somewhere else. They don’t want to read, I don’t want to listen. Their blog, but my time, and I’m not going to spend my time on people with fundamental disagreements or personality conflicts. Others behave differently, for various reasons that I haven’t bothered to analyze completely.

    Why don’t you, Ray, comment at blackfive.com? That’s a great place for people to shut up and listen, as the militaresque speak is quite educational.

    It is weird but people aren’t like me. If I agree with the majority of a blog’s posts and points, that doesn’t mean I won’t stop reading it if the behavior of the blog author to me is unwelcome, unfair, or unjust. I may put up a token argument, but once that line is crossed, I stop reading and commenting. Other people on the Left, for example, when they come onto neo-neocon blogs like well…. uh neo-neocon for example, don’t act like that. They disagree, and they are told their behavior is unwelcome, but they still come back time and time again to read, comment, and espouse their view.

    I don’t got the time to argue over every single conservative or liberal over what their opinions of me should or should not be. They’re not in my social circle, I don’t have to read them, meet them, or talk to them. If they got a wrong impression of me through some kind of purposefull prejudice or misunderstanding or just because of personal reasons, then that’s their problem to fix, I’m not going to bother unless I’m going to encounter them involuntarily in the future.

    Others don’t act like that for some reason. They’re quite tenacious, like some of Neo’s regular commenters. I may be a classical liberal in my perspective on humanity, but I’m a neo-conservative by circumstance and a conservative by temperance. I like to have roots and familiarity, like reading and commenting on blogs that I regularly revisit. This is why people should not subordinate their identities and personalities to their politics, it is not a good idea, it makes you very inflexible and rude. The military is one of the most conservative social groups on Earth, yet the US military’s most frequent motto is to fight for freedom and against oppression. There must be balance, for serenity, and without serenity, there is little peace of mind.

  9. Some of Mamapj’s points are explored in this essay at BigLizards.Blog. You may find the comments are worthy as well.
    —–
    http://biglizards.net/blog/archives/2006/06/the_question_ne.html#trackbacks
    ——
    Here’s one BL comment that gives details I’ve never seen the GW movement admit—–
    (excerpt)
    With the exception of the Wall Street Journal, none of the mass media mentioned the Heidelberg Appeal, signed initially by 218 leading scientists including 27 Nobel Prize winners in April 1992, after the “Earth Summit” in Rio, as a condemnation of irrational ideologies opposed to scientific and industrial progress. By the fall of that year the number of signatories had grown to 500 scientists, including 62 Nobel Prize winners, and by 1997, S. Fred Singer, who heads the Science and Environmental Policy Project in Washington D.C., reported the figures as 4,000 and 70 respectively. 160 Nor do the media publicize the Leipzig Declaration, based on an international symposium held in Germany in November 1995, which contains the statements “there does not exist today a general scientific consensus about the importance of greenhouse warming” and “we cannot subscribe to the politically inspired worldview that envisages climate catastrophes and calls for hasty actions.” This was reissued in 1997 prior to the climate treaty conference due to be held in Kyoto in December, signed by almost a hundred atmospheric specialists, and carried the caveat “we consider the drastic emission control policies likely to be endorsed by the Kyoto conference—lacking credible support from the underlying science—to be ill-advised and premature.” 161

  10. Going half cocked is going to get someone killed. Since if the hammer hits the flash pot by accident, your gun will fire.

  11. Proponents on the left simply do not know how to have reasoned discourse. That’s why trolls don’t usually last on conservative blogs. They simply can’t get anyone’s goat and no matter what they say, they are answered by facts, figures and a logical refutation (with links) of their argument.

    It’s invective and expletives they want and when they don’t get it, they go back where they’re more comfortable.

  12. PS: Pastor Ray… if you actually are a pastor, you need to seriously consider working on your “people” skills.

  13. Well Erp, some people are more persistant than others. Some of them don’t go back ; )

  14. Jg… thanks for the link. The article and the comments are great :).

    The alleged “news” media is one of the most culpable culprits in this due to their failure to report things that do not go along with whatever their agenda is each week.

    The two major petitions you brought up that were mentioned in that article are only a part of it. The worst part is that they’re ignoring major news releases from places such as NASA, the JPL, and the Berkeley astronomy department.

    The general public do not know that there is proven global warming on Mars. NASA has the photos of the melting South Pole ice cap to prove it. The tragic part is that NASA released this news back in December 2001! It has been KNOWN for 4 1/2 years, but only people who read a few layman’s science magazines know about it. The news of it seeped out over the blogosphere via those individuals who read science mags. NO ONE in the entire mainstream news media, not even Fox, reported this NASA news release. Considering the furor on global warming, one might have thought that news of global warming on another planet would be, well… sort of… significant?

    Then, in April 2004, UC Berkeley astronomy department (which makes me wonder if those quivering greenies at Berkeley ever read their own web page!) released news of global warming on Jupiter. Global warming on Jupiter has been known for two years.

    So what’s going on here? Could it be… (gasp!)solar activity?

    Why can the alleged “news” media not connect the dots and see that news of global warming on three planets in the same system could be related to solar activity? And why wouldn’t certain individual scientists be interested in checking this out?

    Jg, in the blog you linked, I thought the very best and most pertinent answer to that last question was this one:

    “To answer your question, no: There is grant money to be had studying problems. There is no money to be had if it is not a problem.

    “The above hissed in response by: MarkD”

    That pretty much solves the Great Science Mystery. “Follow the money, honey!”

  15. Like the population problems of the 1980s, be aware that the solution may indeed turn out to be worst than the problem.

  16. Ymarsaker… yes, I remember when I was in college (back in the Stone Age of the ’70s! LOL!), when the environmentalists were so concerned about air pollution and population.

    Only then, the screed was that we were going to be overpopulated within 20 years, and that atmospheric pollution was going to cause an ice age… a “nuclear winter”! And they were just as hysterical about that as they are today about GW.

    IMHO, if they’d tune down the hysteria and discuss this thing calmly… and LISTEN to other POVs instead of dismissing them as “paid off by the oil companies”… they just might have a little more credibility.

  17. Some people believe. in their self-righteousness, that they have obtained true enlightenment and wisdom. Not so. Enlightenment and wisdom are obtained through inner introspection, through self-discovery. Know thyself and you will know thy enemey, know thy enemy and you will know thyself.

    True understanding consists of more than just chanting slogans, waving placards, and being in a group. Watch Triumph of the Will to see why.

    It is not enough to feel self-righteous, you have to be righteous. How do you do that? You do that by combining the strengths of others with your weaknesses, but first you have to know your weaknesses in the first place. And you can’t do that if you wall yourself off, tell yourself that the neo-cons are living in their own universe and are thus not worth paying attention to. Obviously, if your opponents are living in a fantasy world, you should not take their comments or beliefs seriously, and if you don’t take opposition POVs seriously, then your internal beliefs are not endangered.

    Then again, if your internal beliefs are not endangered, how are you going to improve exactly? People improve by making mistakes, feeling their flaws and weaknesses, and by working on them. Training for a project or an atheletic competition can mean pushing yourself past your limits, and hurting yourself. But if you never try, you will never win. Athletes and people who exercise to stay in shape, they must understand the limits of their body and they cannot do so by looking at Hollywood magazines or body building pics of 300 pound gigagorillas. Do you improve yourself by saying to yourself, “this guy can do 50 one handed push ups, if I don’t do at least 20, I’m never going to be like him!!!!”?

    In terms of ideological correctness and philosophical beliefs, the first step is always to look inwards and see yourself for who you truly are. Hollywood notoriously lacks that, maybe that is why they go into the guru business and the scientology stuff. If you can’t find any worthy opponents to confront your beliefs with, this does not mean you can sleep off the rest of the race, this means you got to try harder. For without loyal opposition, the United States will wither and die, replaced by a probably more enraged and cruel power. Not only are we playing for the stakes of our own ideological and philosophical health, but we are playing with the future of the entire world at stake. What will be decided in the early 21st century will have repercussions for the entire human race, simply because it will dictate what the premier superpower will see themselves as and will determine how that superpower will act in the future.

  18. Pastor Ray needs to read Ehrlich’s book from the ’60s (The Population Bomb) and remember that those of us who questioned it were told to “shut up and listen” at that time. Why anyone will pay any attention whatever to Paul Ehrlich today would be a mystery if we were dealing with rational people interested in educating us, rather than idealogues who want to manipulate us into going along with their program.

    By the way, I’d bet dollars to donuts that the change from 400 to 2,000 years is an attempt to shore up the “hockey stick”, which has been pretty much debunked by data such as Mamapajamas has laid out for us.

    The earth is warming….slowly. We don’t really know why. The evidence that the varied bogeymen of the left are responsible is somewhere between lame and nonexistent.

  19. Aliens are warming the planet in preparation for terra-forming activities.

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