More problems with climate predictions

This just in:

The researchers compared predictions of 22 widely used climate “models” — elaborate schematics that try to forecast how the global weather system will behave — with actual readings gathered by surface stations, weather balloons and orbiting satellites over the past three decades.

The study, published online this week in the International Journal of Climatology, found that while most of the models predicted that the middle and upper parts of the troposphere —1 to 6 miles above the Earth’s surface — would have warmed drastically over the past 30 years, actual observations showed only a little warming, especially over tropical regions.

“Can the models accurately explain the climate from the recent past? It seems that the answer is no,” said lead study author David H. Douglass, a physicist specializing in climate at the University of Rochester.

Douglass and his co-authors S. Fred Singer, a physicist at the University of Virginia, and John R. Christy, a climatologist at the University of Alabama at Huntsville, are noted global-warming skeptics.

However, Christy was a major contributor to the 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and is one of the world’s premier authorities on collection and analysis of satellite-derived temperature data, having been commended by both NASA and the American Meteorological Society for his efforts.

“We do not see accelerated warming in the tropical troposphere,” said Christy. “Instead, the lower and middle atmosphere are warming the same or less than the surface.”

The difference between the climate models and the satellite data has been known for several years.

Now, I would still love to see us get off fossil fuels, since doing so would de-fund large parts of the world that are most hostile to us (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.), but that doesn’t make me less opposed to the hysteria about global warming.  If the hysteria would take more practical turns, such as developing nuclear energy or using public schools to teach kids to turn out lights when they leave the room, I might be more interested in the whole thing.  As it is, the misanthropy, the anti-Americanism, and the rank profiteering that characterizes climate change activism to me is a complete turn off, it’s not being used intelligently to deal with real problems and force real solutions, and I therefore resist it steadfastly.

7 Responses

  1. My prediction stands – Al Gore will end his life being mocked for what he did. He will be very rich, however.

  2. This is just the beginning of the end. More and more journal articles will start to come out in this vein. If you read some of the coverage the terms data and model results are interchanged. In fact in the recent IPCC report there was some question of the data being “right” due to model disagreements. The simple fact of the matter is the theory does not hold up throughout all time frames. To match all the data the various forcing agents have to be changed in regards to their importance as a function of time.

  3. Even the Pope has come out against Global Warming as a competing faith. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=501316&in_page_id=1811&ito=1490

    My guess is that the proposed tax on births was the last straw for the Holy Father!
    http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200712/INT20071210a.html

  4. And just the day before yesterday I was told that the tide had shifted *away* from deniers.

    Go figure.

    BTW, did you catch the Republican debate tonight or the You Tube clip of Fred Thompson refusing to raise his hand if he thought global warming was vastly serious and caused by man?

    He didn’t say no, but he said he’d only answer the question if she gave him a minute to do so. She said no.

  5. The German Greens used to be opposed to computers. Just one of a series of reasons to question their judgement. Another is that 270,000 signed a Greenpeace petition to put climate in the Human Rights Charter with the right to legally challenge for damages. John Edwards would love it.

  6. There it is again. Mars is getting warmer too. I just hope that the continued failure to create more energy capacity does not lead to thousands of fatalities from cold weather when the cycles reverse. But of course, the Left will blame Bush for brainwashing the Left into not allowing the oil companies to expand capacity.
    Al

  7. It is kind of obvious. Technology, such as computers, free humanity’s mind and body. Thus, such things cannot be allowed.

    I mean, seriously, can you imagine the plight of the proletariat and the Revolution if human beings could free their minds and their bodies? Apocalypse Now disaster then.

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