Comments on: Seeking information about the accuracy of the most recently touted poll http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/ She escaped from the belly of the liberal beast Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:52:35 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: JJ http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56687 JJ Wed, 27 Jun 2007 23:08:53 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56687 As Winston Churchill pointed out, everyone when young is liberal - then they grow up. As Winston Churchill pointed out, everyone when young is liberal – then they grow up.

]]> By: Robert J. Avrech http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56678 Robert J. Avrech Wed, 27 Jun 2007 21:55:26 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56678 Young people are left of center: Stop The Presses! Young people are left of center:

Stop

The

Presses!

]]> By: ymarsakar http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56665 ymarsakar Wed, 27 Jun 2007 18:18:48 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56665 http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20070627_POLL.pdf http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20070627_POLL.pdf

]]> By: ymarsakar http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56664 ymarsakar Wed, 27 Jun 2007 18:17:04 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56664 Don's going to have some problems with the pdf poll then. Because there is not much statistical difference between the so called Adult Only poll and the Youngling Poll in some of the most liberal questions. <blockquote>46. Which of these comes closest to your view? Abortion should be generally available to those who want it, abortion should be available but under stricter limits then it is now, abortion should not be permitted? Available Available but stricter Not permitted DK/NA 5/18-23/07 All adults 39 37 21 2</blockquote> Look at the abortion one. 39 available or adults, 37 for Young Folks. Look at global warming question down the list. 52-54, adults to young. The polls aren't even consistent with the popular belief that as you age you become more conservative. There may be no reason by inductive logic to disbelieve, but there are plenty of reasons through deductive logic to disbelieve. Don’s going to have some problems with the pdf poll then. Because there is not much statistical difference between the so called Adult Only poll and the Youngling Poll in some of the most liberal questions.

46. Which of these comes closest to your view? Abortion should be generally available to those who want it, abortion should be available but under stricter limits then it is now, abortion should not be permitted?
Available Available but stricter Not permitted DK/NA
5/18-23/07 All adults 39 37 21 2

Look at the abortion one.

39 available or adults, 37 for Young Folks.

Look at global warming question down the list. 52-54, adults to young.

The polls aren’t even consistent with the popular belief that as you age you become more conservative.

There may be no reason by inductive logic to disbelieve, but there are plenty of reasons through deductive logic to disbelieve.

]]> By: Don Quixote http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56654 Don Quixote Wed, 27 Jun 2007 16:40:57 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56654 657 is a quite adequate sampling size. The commenters are correct, however, that (a) the sample has to actually be representative (if done by a reputable pollster, it probably is), and (b) the questions have to be unbiased (I'd have to see the questions). I have absolutely no reason to disbelieve this particular poll, however. People are almost always more liberal when young and learn better as they grow older (look at you, Bookworm). Also, these kids are the victims of their educational system, which is absolutely dominated by liberals. No wonder they end up parroting liberal positions. 657 is a quite adequate sampling size. The commenters are correct, however, that (a) the sample has to actually be representative (if done by a reputable pollster, it probably is), and (b) the questions have to be unbiased (I’d have to see the questions).

I have absolutely no reason to disbelieve this particular poll, however. People are almost always more liberal when young and learn better as they grow older (look at you, Bookworm). Also, these kids are the victims of their educational system, which is absolutely dominated by liberals. No wonder they end up parroting liberal positions.

]]> By: pacificus http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56650 pacificus Wed, 27 Jun 2007 16:14:26 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56650 Polls with a sample of under one thousand should always be considered suspect. Even though the larger margin of error is noted, I dont believe it actually conveys the lowered accuracy. I dont give any creedence to a poll with a sample less than a thousand, or with a margin of error greater than 3%. And as has been pointed out above, how the questions are given, who the poll is aimed at, the group paying for the poll, and many other factors make modern polling not a lot different from tea leaves, chicken entrails, or any other method of taking the auspices. Polls have been given a place all out of proportion to their utility or accuracy, and are in fact just propaganda masquerading as science undergirding objective news reporting. But just the fact that polls now ARE the news should tell us something. Polls with a sample of under one thousand should always be considered suspect. Even though the larger margin of error is noted, I dont believe it actually conveys the lowered accuracy. I dont give any creedence to a poll with a sample less than a thousand, or with a margin of error greater than 3%.

And as has been pointed out above, how the questions are given, who the poll is aimed at, the group paying for the poll, and many other factors make modern polling not a lot different from tea leaves, chicken entrails, or any other method of taking the auspices.

Polls have been given a place all out of proportion to their utility or accuracy, and are in fact just propaganda masquerading as science undergirding objective news reporting. But just the fact that polls now ARE the news should tell us something.

]]> By: swampacreage http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56630 swampacreage Wed, 27 Jun 2007 13:18:30 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56630 Polls and statistics can be used by left and right to spin and spin to tell any story they wish.You know it an I know it. Again Twain,I believe said, there are lies,damned lies and then there are statistics. ps Also, stats are like a beautiful - - - - - in a - - - - - - ,what you see can be very interesting,but what is covered up is quite vital ! In other words you don't get to see the whole truth of the matter. Polls and statistics can be used by left and right to spin and spin to tell any story they wish.You know it an I know it. Again Twain,I believe said, there are lies,damned lies and then there are statistics.

ps Also, stats are like a beautiful – - – - – in a – - – - – - ,what you see can be very interesting,but what is covered up is quite vital ! In other words you don’t get to see the whole truth of the matter.

]]> By: Webloggin - Blog Archive » Seeking information About the Accuracy of the Most Recently Touted Poll http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56623 Webloggin - Blog Archive » Seeking information About the Accuracy of the Most Recently Touted Poll Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:35:12 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56623 [...] turns out that the collecting methodology was suspect or biased. (Both Best of the Web, on the WSJ’s Opinion Page, and Cheat-Seeking Missiles are exceptionally good at digging into polls and exposing the [...] [...] turns out that the collecting methodology was suspect or biased. (Both Best of the Web, on the WSJ’s Opinion Page, and Cheat-Seeking Missiles are exceptionally good at digging into polls and exposing the [...]

]]> By: Trimegistus http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56619 Trimegistus Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:20:43 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56619 Personal anecdote: about six months ago I got a call from a woman claiming to be doing an AP poll. Her Central American accent was so heavy that at times I had to ask her to spell out some of the words in the questions. ("Judge Boosh" was a frequent topic.) Most of the questions were so sloppily worded as to be meaningless. My favorite example: Do I approve of the way Judge Boosh has handled education, the environment, and the economy -- yes or no? It would be hard to find anyone who would answer yes to that question, and there were no followups to determine _why_ I might disapprove. Do I think he's not doing enough to protect the environment or do I think he's caving to eco-cultists? Do I think he's letting atheists indoctrinate our kids or do I think he's turning schools into Bible camps? Never asked. Ever since then I've decided polls reflect only the opinions of those who commissioned the poll. No other meaningful conclusions can be drawn from them. Personal anecdote: about six months ago I got a call from a woman claiming to be doing an AP poll. Her Central American accent was so heavy that at times I had to ask her to spell out some of the words in the questions. (“Judge Boosh” was a frequent topic.)

Most of the questions were so sloppily worded as to be meaningless. My favorite example: Do I approve of the way Judge Boosh has handled education, the environment, and the economy — yes or no? It would be hard to find anyone who would answer yes to that question, and there were no followups to determine _why_ I might disapprove. Do I think he’s not doing enough to protect the environment or do I think he’s caving to eco-cultists? Do I think he’s letting atheists indoctrinate our kids or do I think he’s turning schools into Bible camps? Never asked.

Ever since then I’ve decided polls reflect only the opinions of those who commissioned the poll. No other meaningful conclusions can be drawn from them.

]]> By: swampacreage http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56616 swampacreage Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:10:17 +0000 http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/26/seeking-information-about-the-accuracy-of-the-most-recently-touted-poll/#comment-56616 Maybe ,but I doubt the above, however "out of the mouth of babes and sucklings,has thou ordained strength." Hey, just a minute, on second thought,the pollsters are part of a world wide communist led of a beast conspiracy to bring down the Repubs.Yeah that's it ! Maybe ,but I doubt the above, however “out of the mouth of babes and sucklings,has thou ordained strength.” Hey, just a minute, on second thought,the pollsters are part of a world wide communist led of a beast conspiracy to bring down the Repubs.Yeah that’s it !

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