Deconstructing the Army’s success story

I heard this NPR story about Army recruiting while I was in the car today. I’m at a computer that doesn’t have audio, so I can’t check specific material in the story. I’m therefore relying on my memory about most of the points I heard. The story’s premise is spelled out on the NPR website:

The U.S. economy is getting stronger and the U.S. war in Iraq is getting more unpopular. Normally that spells trouble for military recruiters. But for nearly two years the Army has managed to meet or exceed its recruiting and retention goals.

The story rather schizophrenically says that people don’t join the Army to get rich, but then notes that the Pentagon is recruiting people by offering them more money. Go figure.

In the report, Ret. Gen’l Barry McCaffrey, who is very angry, says that the Army is faking it: it publishes low recruiting goals on the principle that anything is better than nothing. That is, the Army can’t get what it really needs, but it can get better than zero, so it boasts about getting better than zero. That confused me a bit, because it seemed to me that the Army needs what it needs, and that all the fudging in the world won’t change the facts on the ground. It also doesn’t address the high reenlistment rate, which is a fact that stands on its own, and that speaks to something about military service that must be fulfilling for those who join up in the first place.

Most confusing to me were two points this report made. They were confusing, not because of how they were presented in the story, but because of how poorly they mesh with certain memes about the U.S. military. The first point was that the enlistee age has climbed up to 42. I can’t remember if that’s an average (I doubt it), or just a frequently occurring number. In other words, this isn’t just a young man’s Army any more. The second point was the horror, the absolute horror, that the high school graduation rate of Army enlistees has dropped from 90% to 80%. These two points sent lots of scattered thoughts racing through my little synapses.

First off, since that the Left has long considered the Army the great idiot unwashed, why is it so horrified that high school graduate enlistments have dropped by 10%? As Kerry made clear, the Army is for the uneducated. As for me, even respecting the Army as I do (and I do), I was actually stunned that the number of high school graduates was so high. Even at the “lower” rate of 80%, the Army must have one of the most educated workforces in America, outside of white collar jobs that demand college or post-graduate degrees as a pre-requisite for employment (such as doctor, lawyer, architect, etc.).

Second, the little throwaway about the higher number of older enlistees also completely undermined the Left’s constantly reiterated point about the Army preying, not just on the uneducated, but on the very young. You just can’t paint your 42 year old enlistee as some baby-faced illiterate, who’s being manipulated by an Army recruiter in a sharp uniform with shiny shoes.

It’s actually the increasingly older recruit who may answer the (to NPR) mystifying question about why people want to be in the military. Enlisting may be about finding a life with meaning, a life with purpose, a life that makes a safer world for our children. Older, thinking people who trudge of to a brain numbing job every day, but who hear on the news about constant jihadist depredations world-wide, may feel that they have more to contribute to their country and their own children by being in the front line, than they do by making another widget or pushing another piece of paper across their desk. It may also be a wonderful outlet for people trapped in unhappy marriages, who can’t or won’t divorce. The Army offers them the opportunity to get away, while still providing an income for their family (and helping protect their children).

The men (and women) who enlist, regardless of age or education, may also simply need more excitement than day-to-day life offers us. As a person who requires very low stimulation, I’ve always been fascinated by the number of people who engage in extreme sports. “Why,” I ask myself, “would anyone want to do something so insanely dangerous?” I long ago decided that a lot of people need high stimulation in order to feel alive and purposeful. In the old days, these same thrill seekers were very useful people, out there in the front lines hunting woolly mammoths, being or fighting off Vikings, sailing for new worlds, or hunting Nazis. In the modern age, there’s nothing out there to make them feel alive — until a war comes along. In other words, just as I seem biologically programmed to shrink from conflict, I’m betting that the war is a wonderful opportunity for those others who are programmed to embrace thrills and risk.

Because it doesn’t fit comfortably into the above argument, let me discuss here one more point the NPR story makes, which is the “skyrocketing” number of enlistees with criminal records. First, I found it suspicious that the story doesn’t mention what the actual numbers are. If enlistees with criminal records doubled from 1% to 2%, it’s still a statistically insignificant number. So, without more data, I’m not impressed.

Second, the story also doesn’t tell what kind of records these ex-cons have. The fact is, our general society does a lousy job of re-opening for those who have spent time in prison. Whether the crime was awful (murderous assault) or technical (possessing an ounce of cocaine), makes very little difference when these people come out — there’s no place for them. And while I’m less than thrilled with the murderer even getting out of prison at all, I think it would be a very good thing if the low level criminal, the one-off kind of guy who made a stupid life decision, could be reintegrated and become a useful citizen. The Army seems like a perfect place for people who made bad decisions when they were young, and who now need to lave a bad record behind. It’s a paying job in a highly structured, disciplined environment. If they can pass through it unscathed, and return to civilian life with an honorable military record, it strikes me that they’ll have a much easier time re-entering civil society than they would straight out of the prison gates.

I’ve got work to do and a very fragmented day, so these are just off-the-top of my head thoughts. I’d be very interested in your insights and comments, especially if you get the chance to listen to the NPR story (it’s about five minutes long).