DQ again. Just read a news article with some good background on the current crisis. I’m not writing about the background, though, but about its assumptions as to the public’s reaction. It suggests that if Israeli civilians are killed they will “begin clamoring for a cease-fire.” But if Lebanese civilians begin to suffer hardships ”people will begin to support Hizbullah against Israel again.” I’d believe the American public would call for a cease-fire and I suspect the author is right about the the Lebanese. But will Israelis really call for a cease-fire when they are attacked or will they, like the Lebanese, unite in support of their country?
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Well, it’s all nice but there is no “current crisis.” We are not in fact in the sixth day of the “current crisis.” Where we are is in the 58th year of the effort by those who wish to destroy Israel. The goal hasn’t changed since 1948. While those who wish to accomplish that goal have given lip service to various “current crises” over the decades, the players and the object of the game haven’t changed an iota. And they don’t really pretend that it has.
Hamas, Hizbullah, the PLO, the Arab League, and whatever they were calling themselves in the fifties, sixties, seventies and eighties -same guys; same goal; same ultimate strategy; same, same, same. The names of organizations have changed, the names of leaders have changed, the day-to-day activities have changed: the leopard hasn’t moved a single one of his spots.
So I can’t give much weight to this “current crisis” crap. It’s the same old deal. And Israel has even withdrawn from territory in the past – and had exactly this same result. This “current crisis” is not “current,” nor is it an event in isolation.
All we do is delude ouraelves we talk about, and analyze, and intellectualize about the “current crisis.”
Good comment, JJ. Thanks.
Any smart Israelis will realize that “peace” now is no peace at all — stopping now will have the same effect as stopping halfway through destroying a wasp’s nest. It merely angers them, without disabling them. I think that the Israelis recognize that this is a pivotal moment and that they need to see it through to the bitter end.
I do find interesting the article’s assumption that Israeli’s are Western wusses who will back down, while the Lebanese are strong, Islamic fighters who will keep going. What biases and assumptions are driving those conclusions.
[...] Public reactions [...]
Nice catch, JJ. My use of the term “current crisis” reflects a fundamental assumption of mine. As her comment indicates, Bookworm sees this as a “pivotal moment.” She may well be right, but I still see this as more likely just the latest crisis in a decades, if not centuries, long battle. The battle ebbs & flows, but it never ends. Unlike Bookworm, I don’t expect the current battle to actually solve anything. Hope I’m wrong (wouldn’t be the first time!) but that’s how I view it. Time will tell.
Well, i tend to believe a lot of people believe the West is decadent and not worth defending. Therefore they would extend this philosophy to Israel and expect Israelis themselves to doubt their nation and their right to survive.
A mass case of cultural rot, decadence, and disbelief. Islam provides the ultimate in contrast. The “True Believer”, better known as the fanatic and religious zealot. Someone willing to kill himself, his parents, and the entire world for his beliefs. The Left aches for a return to such times of absolute belief in their righteousness and power. Socialism and multiculturalism provides them such an avenue, but it is weak and fake compared to Islamic JIhad. After all, how can any Marxist look at the success of capitalism and say “Marxism is strong and capitalism is weak”? Not even the most ignorant of idiots could deceive themselves for long that they are the “anointed” ones in Western culture. But for Islamic Jihad, they have better success. They recruit people in Europe, women and men to Islam, because Islam provides structure, order, and demands that Western culture simply does not.
If you compare Hollywood’s lifestyle to the lifestyle of Osama Bin Laden, there is a remarkable difference. But there is also a remarkable similarity in terms of wealth and status.
I think Bookworm is right that this is a pivotal moment. Much as Antietam was a pivotal moment in the Ami Civil War. It does not mean the war is going to be over soon, it just means the balance of powers will change.
It’s going to change a lot, simply because it is logistics that matter in the long term, as to victory or defeat. Hizbollah has a short logistics route to Israel, that is how they can rocket Israel all the time. Cut Hizbollah’s logistics, and they die on the vine.
Conventional and guerrila armies both have to obey the limitations of the concepts of tactics, strategy, and logistics. They just have different versions of those 3 primary concepts and battle techniques.
No Army, Terroist Force, or Guerrila militia can fight without logistics. Cut the logistics and they will bleed out. Israel’s problem is that they hit back, do assassinations, launch bombs, and blow up terroist safe houses, but they have never attempted to cut the throat of their enemies. That is why they come back, such as Dragon’s Teeth, and hit Israel again and again every few years.
The critical strike leading to the fatal blow must be struck, and it can only be struck if Israel is in the proper balance and foot position to do so. Currently, with Saddam gone, their chances are the best in decades.